3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,756 sqft ·
Built 2018
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 94 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,282/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,258
Tax + insurance
−$179
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$479
Net cashflow
$366/mo
Annual
$4,391/yr
Cap rate
8.12%
Cash-on-cash
6.54%
DSCR
1.29
1% rule
0.95%
Cash to close
$67,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $366 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (4.9% below list).
It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $218k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 646 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $168k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-6RSN6P3GN27RD7
· Data 4 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29