8698 1st St

Brocton, NY 14769

$139,900D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Built 1928 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,282/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$330
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $-52/mo
• Annual: $-618/yr
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.58%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-618/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (8.4% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $128k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#805 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Brocton Central School District (rural): math 24% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #584 of 590 in NY (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Brocton Elementary School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,577 of 2,108 statewide, top 77%, 217 students, 71% FRL); Brocton Middle High School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,098 of 1,100 statewide, top 100%, 277 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 48% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.