5100 Masonboro Loop Rd

Myrtle Grove, NC 28409

$295,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Pending · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,128/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-60/mo
• Annual: $-721/yr
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.87%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-721/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (27.9% below list).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $213k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#147 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• New Hanover County Schools (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #61 of 178 in NC (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Heyward C Bellamy Elem (math 65% / reading 65%, grade B+, #145 of 1,410 statewide, top 10%, 556 students, 38% FRL); Myrtle Grove Middle (math 40% / reading 49%, grade D, #169 of 475 statewide, top 37%, 645 students, 56% FRL); Eugene Ashley High (math 48% / reading 68%, grade C, #243 of 535 statewide, top 46%, 1,975 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 241 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,581 units permitted in New Hanover County in 2024 (1,185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New Hanover County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.5% in Myrtle Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.