26 N Wind Rd

Wilmington, VT 05363

$399,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 137 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,259/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$485
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-793/mo
• Annual: $-9,517/yr
• Cap rate: 3.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.52%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-793 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (35.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (43.4% below list).
• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $226k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#57 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Twin Valley Elementary School (math 44% / reading 54%, grade D, #50 of 192 statewide, top 32%, 181 students, 43% FRL); Twin Valley Middle High School (math 22% / reading 52%, grade F, #25 of 48 statewide, top 53%, 193 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Windham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Windham County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $399k implies a 343% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.3% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.