5813 Route 44/55

Kerhonkson, NY 12446

$359,000C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,225 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 355 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,968/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax + insurance: −$607
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $-144/mo
• Annual: $-1,730/yr
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $100,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $359k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-144 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $334k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (17.3% below list).
• It's been on market 355 days — a 12% lower offer ($316k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $297k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $38k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#552 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Rondout Valley Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #447 of 590 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $359k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$62k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.4% in Kerhonkson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 355 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.