352 Bubble Creek Ct #10

Fayetteville, NC 28311

$142,000D

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,254 sqft · Built 1998 · Condo · Active · 102 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,416/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$745
• Tax + insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$254
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-6/mo
• Annual: $-66/yr
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.17%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $39,760

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $142k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-66/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (0.3% below list).
• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($129k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $129k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $982 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Howard L Hall Elementary (math 40% / reading 49%, grade F, #574 of 1,410 statewide, top 43%, 600 students, 100% FRL); Pine Forest Middle (math 38% / reading 49%, grade D, #182 of 475 statewide, top 40%, 738 students, 56% FRL); Pine Forest High (math 73% / reading 51%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,572 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 55% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 363 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.8% in Fayetteville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?