300 Thornton Dr Spc 14

Crest, CA 92021

$281,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,341 sqft · Built 2004 · Manufactured · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,220/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,474
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$676
• Net cashflow: $870/mo
• Annual: $10,442/yr
• Cap rate: 10.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.27%
• DSCR: 1.59
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $78,680

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $281k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $870 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $281k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $277k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#954 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Crest Elementary (259 students, 43% FRL); Los Coches Creek Middle (538 students, 48% FRL); Granite Hills High (math 31% / reading 59%, grade D-, #425 of 1,170 statewide, top 37%, 2,398 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 17% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $111k; list at $281k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,220/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 4178% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.