148 Briarwood Ln

Advance, NC 27006

$319,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,438 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,138/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax + insurance: −$532
• HOA: −$180
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $-695/mo
• Annual: $-8,344/yr
• Cap rate: 3.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.34%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $89,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $319k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-695 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (31.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (33.0% below list).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $214k (33.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#215 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Davie County Schools (rural): math 51% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #57 of 178 in NC (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shady Grove Elementary (math 66% / reading 73%, grade A-, #95 of 1,410 statewide, top 7%, 514 students, 23% FRL); William Ellis Middle (math 48% / reading 59%, grade C+, #87 of 475 statewide, top 19%, 452 students, 31% FRL); Davie County High (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,770 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 222 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 250 units permitted in Davie County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Davie County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.5% in Advance — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.