111 Brook Rd

Lyndon, VT 05851

$349,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,600/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax + insurance: −$637
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $-413/mo
• Annual: $-4,961/yr
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.39%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $97,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $349k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-413 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (25.5% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $260k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 112 units permitted in Caledonia County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caledonia County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $178k; list at $349k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.