7801 Ellington Dr

Normandy, MO 63121

$111,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,393 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,315/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$582
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $324/mo
• Annual: $3,891/yr
• Cap rate: 9.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.52%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $31,080

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $111k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $111k).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $104k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $767 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#290 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bermuda Elementary (143 students, 98% FRL); Steam Academy At Msb High Scho (math 12% / reading 62%, grade F, #291 of 521 statewide, top 60%, 437 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 70% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 14% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Ferguson-Florissant R-II average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 23 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.