467 Big Knob Rd

Unionville, PA 15074

$159,900D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,588 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Pending · 247 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,333/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$327
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $-112/mo
• Annual: $-1,346/yr
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.01%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (16.6% below list).
• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $133k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,481 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Freedom Area SD (suburban): math 24% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #416 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Freedom Area El Sch (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #947 of 1,518 statewide, top 65%, 438 students, 53% FRL); Freedom Area Ms (math 19% / reading 42%, grade F, #376 of 512 statewide, top 74%, 370 students, 60% FRL); Freedom Area Shs (math 37% / reading 24%, grade F, #344 of 437 statewide, top 79%, 402 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 38% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 272 units permitted in Beaver County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Beaver County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $138k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.3% in Unionville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.