35 bd · 25.0 ba ·
— sqft ·
Built —
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 782 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$17,746/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$7,866
Tax + insurance
−$2,500
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$3,727
Net cashflow
$3,653/mo
Annual
$43,838/yr
Cap rate
9.22%
Cash-on-cash
10.44%
DSCR
1.46
1% rule
1.18%
Cash to close
$420,000
Investor read
This is a 5 × 7-bed/5.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.50M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($44k/yr) — positive. Per door: $731/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($18k rent vs $1.50M).
It's been on market 782 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.32M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $1.32M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $10k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $45k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#202 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, cost of living F.
Santa Maria-Bonita (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #1,023 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 54 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.5% in Santa Maria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $17,746/mo this rent would consume 283% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 2583% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 782 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-6VSN1CEP55RNXH
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29