829 Grand Ave

La Presa, CA 91977

$1,648,000F

12 bd · 6.0 ba · 4,416 sqft · Built 1978 · MultiFamily · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,238/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,642
• Tax + insurance: −$2,185
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,150
• Net cashflow: $-2,739/mo
• Annual: $-32,866/yr
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.12%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $461,440

Investor read

• This is a 5 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $1.65M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-33k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-548/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.16M (29.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.02M (37.9% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.60M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.02M (37.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $49k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#571 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment B, housing B; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• La Mesa-Spring Valley (suburban): math 41% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #478 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 160 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $318k; list at $1.65M implies a 418% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.0% in La Presa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $10,238/mo this rent would consume 123% of the median local household income ($100k/yr) (locally 2007% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?