23319 Peninsula Pt

Berryville, TX 75763

$220,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,481 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Pending · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,411/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$348
• HOA: −$4
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $-391/mo
• Annual: $-4,691/yr
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.62%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-391 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (31.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (35.9% below list).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#957 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Frankston ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #155 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Frankston El (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 373 students, 63% FRL); Frankston Middle (math 57% / reading 42%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 184 students, 62% FRL); Frankston H S (math 24% / reading 62%, grade F, #708 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 245 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.