10600 White Rabbit Rd

Bon Air, VA 23235

$349,950D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,788 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,654/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$345
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $-83/mo
• Annual: $-998/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $97,986

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-83 ($-998/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (24.2% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $265k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#103 in VA, #3,251 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greenfield Elementary (math 92% / reading 93%, grade A+, #7 of 1,108 statewide, top 1%, 462 students, 33% FRL); Robious Middle (math 73% / reading 73%, grade A, #58 of 342 statewide, top 17%, 1,129 students, 26% FRL); James River High (math 56% / reading 86%, grade B+, #146 of 319 statewide, top 47%, 1,926 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 79% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+21 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chesterfield County Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $350k implies a 383% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Bon Air — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.