2202 Aspen Dr

Portland, TX 78374

$239,989D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,085/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$631
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $-242/mo
• Annual: $-2,906/yr
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.32%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $67,197

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-242 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (13.1% below list).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $197k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#36 in TX, #1,740 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Gregory-Portland ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #314 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clark El (math 40% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,651 of 4,322 statewide, top 39%, 596 students, 62% FRL); Gregory-Portland Middle (math 43% / reading 39%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 1,124 students, 48% FRL); Gregory-Portland H S (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 1,464 students, 45% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 344 units permitted in San Patricio County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Patricio County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.2% in Portland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.