458 Neptune Ave Unit 3H

New York, NY 11224

$390,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1964 · Condo · Pending · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,992/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$1,077
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$838
• Net cashflow: $32/mo
• Annual: $379/yr
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.03%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $109,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $390k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($379/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $390k).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($367k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $367k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 7.0% rent growth), your $109k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,992/mo this rent would consume 110% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 4426% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?