10395 Forest Brook Ln Unit E

Creve Coeur, MO 63146

$104,999D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,053 sqft · Built 1967 · Condo · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,423/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$511
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $-76/mo
• Annual: $-913/yr
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.11%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $29,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-913/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $92k (12.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#16 in MO, #1,519 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Pattonville R-III (suburban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #147 of 324 in MO (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willow Brook Elem. (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 470 students, 40% FRL); Pattonville Sr. High (math 33% / reading 64%, grade D, #147 of 521 statewide, top 29%, 1,893 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $76k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.7% in Creve Coeur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?