1 bd · 2.0 ba ·
868 sqft ·
Built 1928
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 182 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$825/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$163
Tax + insurance
−$52
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$173
Net cashflow
$438/mo
Annual
$5,250/yr
Cap rate
23.23%
Cash-on-cash
60.49%
DSCR
3.69
1% rule
2.66%
Cash to close
$8,680
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $31k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $438 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($825 rent vs $31k).
It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $27k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $214 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $930 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,265 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
Murphysboro CUSD 186 (town): math 9% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #585 of 620 in IL (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Carruthers Elementary School (math 11% / reading 11%, grade F, #1,460 of 2,056 statewide, top 72%, 406 students, 0% FRL); Murphysboro Middle School (math 4% / reading 6%, grade F, #636 of 665 statewide, top 98%, 444 students, 0% FRL); Murphysboro High School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #430 of 693 statewide, top 66%, 598 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 62% district-wide (62 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $23k (42%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 23.2% vs local median 6.2% in Murphysboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-6X4D578W8MJ35T
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29