69393 Race Horse Rd

Pearl River, LA 70452

$192,500D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,640 sqft · Built 2011 · SingleFamily · Active · 277 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,645/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,009
• Tax + insurance: −$446
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-156/mo
• Annual: $-1,870/yr
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.68%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $53,900

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $192k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-156 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (14.5% below list).
• It's been on market 277 days — a 12% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#419 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sixth Ward Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #129 of 646 statewide, top 21%, 321 students, 63% FRL); Creekside Junior High (math 22% / reading 35%, grade F, #119 of 218 statewide, top 57%, 534 students, 53% FRL); Pearl River High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #132 of 265 statewide, top 50%, 830 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 40% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 49% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Tammany Parish average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 160 active listings in the ZIP; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Pearl River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 277 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.