49 Holcombe Ave

New Castle, VA 24127

$167,500D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 870 sqft · Built 1922 · Other · Active · 110 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,018/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$878
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $-212/mo
• Annual: $-2,545/yr
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.43%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $46,900

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $168k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (39.3% below list).
• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $102k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#519 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Craig County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #83 of 131 in VA (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1922 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Craig County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Craig County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 9 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $168k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1922 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.