3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,240 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Land
· Active
· 116 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,296/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,568
Tax + insurance
−$498
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$482
Net cashflow
$-252/mo
Annual
$-3,030/yr
Cap rate
5.28%
Cash-on-cash
-3.62%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
0.77%
Cash to close
$83,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $299k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-252 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (12.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (23.2% below list).
It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $230k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Otis A. Mason Elementary School (math 76% / reading 60%, grade B+, #425 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 719 students, 45% FRL); R J Murray Middle School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade B-, #196 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 695 students, 50% FRL); St. Augustine High School (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C, #120 of 667 statewide, top 18%, 1,784 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 20% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 74% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Johns average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 638 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $40k; list at $299k implies a 648% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.1% in St. Augustine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-6YDWWX0AQ5M0Y6
· Data 2 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29