245 Gaviota Pl #146

Oxnard, CA 93033

$279,990C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Coming Soon · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,557/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$467
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$747
• Net cashflow: $875/mo
• Annual: $10,502/yr
• Cap rate: 10.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.40%
• DSCR: 1.60
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $78,397

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $875 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $280k).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#905 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A-, health & safety A-, housing B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities D-.
• Hueneme Elementary (urban): math 17% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #1,163 of 1,400 in CA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 31 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,759 units permitted in Ventura County in 2024 (1,196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ventura County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask is 56% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $180k; list at $280k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 2.5% in Oxnard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,557/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 1968% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.