417 Ashbury Dr

Hinsdale, IL 60521

$629,000D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,405 sqft · Built 1991 · Townhouse · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,299
• Tax + insurance: −$1,009
• HOA: −$566
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,218
• Net cashflow: $-291/mo
• Annual: $-3,497/yr
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.99%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $176,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $629k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-291 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $578k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $580k (7.8% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($620k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $578k (8.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#63 in IL, #1,099 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Hinsdale Twp Hsd 86 (suburban): math 62% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #17 of 620 in IL (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Elm Elem School (math 77% / reading 72%, grade A, #11 of 2,056 statewide, top 1%, 319 students, 0% FRL); Hinsdale Middle School (math 65% / reading 67%, grade A-, #12 of 665 statewide, top 2%, 751 students, 0% FRL); Hinsdale Central High School (math 71% / reading 72%, grade B+, #8 of 693 statewide, top 1%, 2,472 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,378 units permitted in DuPage County in 2024 (594 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 14876% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $445k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.7% in Hinsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.