316 Chevelle Dr

Chatsworth, GA 30705

$229,900D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,438 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Pending · 56 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,618/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$203
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $-130/mo
• Annual: $-1,558/yr
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.18%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $64,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-130 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (29.6% below list).
• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#37 in GA, #4,588 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Murray County (other): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #107 of 174 in GA (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Spring Place Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #689 of 1,228 statewide, top 58%, 601 students, 76% FRL); Gladden Middle School (math 26% / reading 30%, grade F, #265 of 470 statewide, top 57%, 548 students, 68% FRL); Murray County High School (math 10% / reading 32%, grade F, #225 of 424 statewide, top 54%, 1,102 students, 65% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 282 active listings in the ZIP; 125 units permitted in Murray County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Murray County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 64% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Chatsworth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.