1142 Welling Ct

New York, NY 11102

$750,000C

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Pending · 124 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,951/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,933
• Tax + insurance: −$573
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,460
• Net cashflow: $985/mo
• Annual: $11,822/yr
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.63%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $210,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $750k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $985 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $695k (7.3% below list).
• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($660k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $660k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $456k; list at $750k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $210k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,951/mo this rent would consume 86% of the median local household income ($97k/yr) (locally 2407% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.