4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,456 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Manufactured
· Active
· 68 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,120/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$708
Tax + insurance
−$87
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$445
Net cashflow
$880/mo
Annual
$10,561/yr
Cap rate
14.12%
Cash-on-cash
27.94%
DSCR
2.24
1% rule
1.57%
Cash to close
$37,799
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $880 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#26 in TX, #1,492 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
Pflugerville ISD (suburban): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #421 of 826 in TX (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Springhill El (math 29% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 500 students, 66% FRL); Pflugerville Middle (math 21% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 815 students, 56% FRL); Pflugerville H S (math 39% / reading 49%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,814 students, 44% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1024 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 2.7% in Pflugerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-6ZSZ7AB46QVK4G
· Data 15 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29