1633 Chase Ave

Corcoran, CA 93212

$235,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,168 sqft · Built 2009 · SingleFamily · Pending · 158 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,735/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$309
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-171/mo
• Annual: $-2,050/yr
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.12%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-171 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (12.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (26.2% below list).
• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,161 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Corcoran Joint Unified (town): math 12% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #464 of 517 in CA (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bret Harte Elementary (531 students, 93% FRL); John Muir Middle (math 14% / reading 29%, grade F, #400 of 498 statewide, top 82%, 783 students, 88% FRL); Corcoran High (math 17% / reading 67%, grade F, #472 of 1,170 statewide, top 42%, 902 students, 84% FRL).
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 741 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.1% in Corcoran — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.