6 bd · None ba ·
3,440 sqft ·
Built 1900
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 154 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,361/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$970
Tax + insurance
−$552
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$496
Net cashflow
$343/mo
Annual
$4,120/yr
Cap rate
8.52%
Cash-on-cash
7.95%
DSCR
1.35
1% rule
1.28%
Cash to close
$51,800
Investor read
This is a 6-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $185k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $343 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $163k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $576 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-703 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#462 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Salem City School District (town): math 6% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #464 of 472 in NJ (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: John Fenwick Academy (411 students, 77% FRL); Salem Middle School (math 2% / reading 21%, grade F, #423 of 431 statewide, top 98%, 487 students, 79% FRL); Salem High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #312 of 399 statewide, top 79%, 420 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 85% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Salem County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Salem County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
8 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $50k; list at $185k implies a 270% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $2,361/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 663% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 15 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29