3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,348 sqft ·
Built 2021
· Townhouse
· Active
· 46 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,034/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,416
Tax + insurance
−$225
HOA
−$40
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$427
Net cashflow
$-74/mo
Annual
$-890/yr
Cap rate
5.96%
Cash-on-cash
-1.18%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.75%
Cash to close
$75,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $270k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-890/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (4.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (24.7% below list).
It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $203k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#398 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
Onslow County Schools (other): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #84 of 178 in NC (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Dixon Elementary (math 63% / reading 66%, grade B, #147 of 1,410 statewide, top 11%, 736 students, 30% FRL); Dixon Middle (math 49% / reading 53%, grade C, #106 of 475 statewide, top 22%, 948 students, 39% FRL); Dixon High (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B, #142 of 535 statewide, top 28%, 1,149 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 61% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Onslow County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 565 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,246 units permitted in Onslow County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $204k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Sneads Ferry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-719NPP4AZNF08H
· Data 5 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29