4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,286 sqft ·
Built 2005
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 76 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$6,858/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$4,190
Tax + insurance
−$1,033
HOA
−$444
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,440
Net cashflow
$-249/mo
Annual
$-2,989/yr
Cap rate
6.15%
Cash-on-cash
-0.52%
DSCR
0.98
1% rule
0.86%
Cash to close
$223,720
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $799k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-249 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $755k (5.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $686k (14.2% below list).
It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($751k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $686k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Veterans Memorial Elementary School (math 78% / reading 79%, grade A, #141 of 2,144 statewide, top 7%, 743 students, 22% FRL); Gulf Coast High School (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,447 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 21% FRL vs 55% district-wide (34 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $6,858/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 1006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-71EXYEAV81FN6W
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29