1337 Pin Tail Cv

Beaver Creek, TX 77836

$129,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active · 147 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,652/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $520/mo
• Annual: $6,245/yr
• Cap rate: 11.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.29%
• DSCR: 1.77
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $520 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Snook ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #334 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Snook El (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 294 students, 70% FRL); Snook Secondary (math 47% / reading 27%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 295 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 315 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Burleson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.