1452 Big Piney Grove Rd

Bonnetsville, NC 28328

$169,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1995 · Other · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,352/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $71/mo
• Annual: $855/yr
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.81%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $71 ($855/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (20.0% below list).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($166k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#724 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Sampson County Schools (rural): math 40% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #114 of 178 in NC (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Roseboro Elementary (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #975 of 1,410 statewide, top 71%, 387 students, 99% FRL); Union Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #335 of 475 statewide, top 72%, 427 students, 99% FRL); Lakewood High (math 72% / reading 42%, grade C, #248 of 535 statewide, top 48%, 479 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 74% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 189 units permitted in Sampson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sampson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $11k; list at $169k implies a 1436% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.