3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,570 sqft ·
Built 1980
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 122 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,400/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$776
Tax + insurance
−$185
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$504
Net cashflow
$935/mo
Annual
$11,219/yr
Cap rate
13.87%
Cash-on-cash
27.07%
DSCR
2.20
1% rule
1.62%
Cash to close
$41,440
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $148k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $935 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($130k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $130k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (8.2% local appreciation)).
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#81 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
Vernon Parish (rural): math 35% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #18 of 98 in LA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Rosepine Elementary School (math 25% / reading 50%, grade F, #247 of 646 statewide, top 39%, 830 students, 55% FRL); Vernon Middle School (math 30% / reading 41%, grade F, #91 of 218 statewide, top 42%, 477 students, 60% FRL); Leesville High School (math 32% / reading 54%, grade F, #66 of 265 statewide, top 25%, 884 students, 47% FRL).
Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 26 units permitted in Vernon Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Vernon County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
8 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (8.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 5.6% in Anacoco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-7282GH8G7TZ0ZV
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29