345 Davis Rd

Pikeville, KY 41501

$35,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $964/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $453/mo
• Annual: $5,439/yr
• Cap rate: 24.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.64%
• DSCR: 3.83
• 1% rule: 2.75%
• Cash to close: $9,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($964 rent vs $35k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $34k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#139 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mullins Elementary School (math 24% / reading 39%, grade F, #376 of 676 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 64% FRL); Pike County Central High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 601 students, 57% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 24.1% vs local median 2.7% in Pikeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.