303 N Gaines Ave

Tulia, TX 79088

$35,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 688 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 165 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $599/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax + insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$126
• Net cashflow: $221/mo
• Annual: $2,653/yr
• Cap rate: 13.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.08%
• DSCR: 2.20
• 1% rule: 1.71%
• Cash to close: $9,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($599 rent vs $35k).
• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $682 of equity ($242 loan paydown + $440 appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,297 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tulia ISD (town): math 22% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #768 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.
• Swisher County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.