168 Janice

Leesville, LA 71446

$180,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,693 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,410/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$205
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $-35/mo
• Annual: $-417/yr
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.83%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-417/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (21.7% below list).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#30 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Vernon Parish (rural): math 35% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #18 of 98 in LA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.6%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 26 units permitted in Vernon Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Vernon County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 11513% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $147k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.