2902 Pershing St

Kissimmee, FL 34741

$150,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 572 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,316/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$263
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $780/mo
• Annual: $9,359/yr
• Cap rate: 12.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.28%
• DSCR: 1.99
• 1% rule: 1.54%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $780 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#181 in FL, #2,841 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, employment D-.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pleasant Hill Elementary School (math 36% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 59% FRL); Osceola High School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,391 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 3.5% in Kissimmee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.