8138 Conover Dr

Belleville, MI 48191

$119,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,128 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,527/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $384/mo
• Annual: $4,603/yr
• Cap rate: 10.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.82%
• DSCR: 1.61
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#164 in MI, #4,360 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lincoln Consolidated School District (rural): math 17% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #393 of 540 in MI (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Middle School (math 18% / reading 34%, grade F, #383 of 493 statewide, top 78%, 734 students, 56% FRL); Lincoln Senior High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #441 of 713 statewide, top 64%, 927 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 996 units permitted in Washtenaw County in 2024 (492 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washtenaw County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.0% in Belleville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.