528 E Lake St St

Paragould, AR 72450

$53,910B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $901/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax + insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $383/mo
• Annual: $4,593/yr
• Cap rate: 14.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.42%
• DSCR: 2.35
• 1% rule: 1.67%
• Cash to close: $15,095

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $54k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $383 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($901 rent vs $54k).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $52k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $372 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#159 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Paragould School District (town): math 35% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #124 of 238 in AR (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 187 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 265 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (135 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $54k implies a 145% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 4.5% in Paragould — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.