79 Evans Ln

Spencer, TN 38585

$149,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,075/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-38/mo
• Annual: $-453/yr
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.08%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-453/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (4.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (28.3% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#99 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Van Buren County (rural): math 28% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #96 of 139 in TN (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Spencer Elementary (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #423 of 952 statewide, top 48%, 394 students, 0% FRL); Van Buren Co High School (math 25% / reading 18%, grade F, #172 of 332 statewide, top 52%, 400 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 181 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Van Buren County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $150k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.5% in Spencer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.