3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,788 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 117 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,288/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$157
Tax + insurance
−$21
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$271
Net cashflow
$840/mo
Annual
$10,084/yr
Cap rate
40.02%
Cash-on-cash
120.45%
DSCR
6.36
1% rule
4.31%
Cash to close
$8,372
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $840 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $27k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#88 in KY, #3,490 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, commute F.
Caldwell County (rural): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #78 of 165 in KY (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Caldwell County Elementary School (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #338 of 676 statewide, top 50%, 403 students, 56% FRL); Caldwell County Middle School (math 25% / reading 42%, grade F, #105 of 217 statewide, top 51%, 421 students, 55% FRL); Caldwell County High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #76 of 254 statewide, top 34%, 544 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP.
Caldwell County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Current owner paid $25k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 40.0% vs local median 6.2% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-74S7SX8XD7YKXK
· Data 6 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29