35 Canobieola Rd

Methuen Town, MA 01844

$400,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,836 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,110/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax + insurance: −$524
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$653
• Net cashflow: $-165/mo
• Annual: $-1,974/yr
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.76%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $112,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $371k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (22.2% below list).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $311k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#108 in MA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Methuen (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #240 of 302 in MA (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Methuen High (math 39% / reading 52%, grade D-, #199 of 343 statewide, top 58%, 1,916 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 34% district-wide (34 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Methuen average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 67 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,032 units permitted in Essex County in 2024 (590 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Essex County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.9% in Methuen Town — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.