40 Hancock Ln

Burlington, NJ 08046

$347,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,627 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Pending · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,275/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,822
• Tax + insurance: −$639
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$688
• Net cashflow: $126/mo
• Annual: $1,512/yr
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.55%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $97,300

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $348k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $327k (5.8% below list).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($337k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $327k (5.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#89 in NJ, #2,359 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F.
• Willingboro Public School District (suburban): math 5% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #433 of 472 in NJ (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hawthorne Park Elementary School (math 8% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,065 of 1,303 statewide, top 83%, 392 students, 10% FRL); Willingboro Memorial Middle School (math 5% / reading 34%, grade F, #398 of 431 statewide, top 93%, 600 students, 8% FRL); Willingboro High School (math 2% / reading 37%, grade F, #354 of 399 statewide, top 89%, 842 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 6% FRL vs 48% district-wide (42 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $138k; list at $348k implies a 151% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.9% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.