816 W Elliott St

Breckenridge, TX 76424

$30,000A-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 816 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 425 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $960/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $573/mo
• Annual: $6,876/yr
• Cap rate: 29.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.86%
• DSCR: 4.64
• 1% rule: 3.20%
• Cash to close: $8,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $573 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($960 rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 425 days — a 12% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $26k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $747 of equity ($207 loan paydown + $540 appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#695 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Breckenridge ISD (town): math 36% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #551 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East El (404 students, 78% FRL); Breckenridge J H (math 38% / reading 31%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 300 students, 71% FRL); Breckenridge H S (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 424 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2 units permitted in Stephens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stephens County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $2k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 29.2% vs local median 3.6% in Breckenridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 425 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.