4 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,930 sqft ·
Built 2025
· Land
· Pending
· 74 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,096/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,807
Tax + insurance
−$285
HOA
−$21
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$440
Net cashflow
$-457/mo
Annual
$-5,487/yr
Cap rate
4.70%
Cash-on-cash
-5.69%
DSCR
0.75
1% rule
0.61%
Cash to close
$96,460
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $344k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-457 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (23.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (39.2% below list).
It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $210k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#119 in TX, #3,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Sharyland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #406 of 826 in TX (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Olivero Garza Sr El (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,048 of 4,322 statewide, top 95%, 587 students, 82% FRL); Sharyland North J H (math 46% / reading 42%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 806 students, 74% FRL); Sharyland Pioneer H S (math 31% / reading 51%, grade F, #774 of 1,632 statewide, top 49%, 1,471 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 55% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 623 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$59k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.7% in McAllen — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
At $2,096/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 855% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-75FC8ZBA1M4FVX
· Data 6 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29