13920 Woods Edge Rd

Chester, VA 23834

$230,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 792 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,578/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax + insurance: −$214
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-173/mo
• Annual: $-2,081/yr
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.23%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $64,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-173 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (31.4% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $158k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#170 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marguerite F. Christian Elementary (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 592 students, 80% FRL); Elizabeth Davis Middle (math 41% / reading 44%, grade D-, #291 of 342 statewide, top 86%, 1,337 students, 44% FRL); Thomas Dale High (math 41% / reading 82%, grade B-, #240 of 319 statewide, top 75%, 2,556 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 126 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $171k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 38% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.6% in Chester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.