12205 Goshen Rd #23

Salem, OH 44460

$28,500A-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Pending · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,113/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$149
• Tax + insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $683/mo
• Annual: $8,192/yr
• Cap rate: 35.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 102.65%
• DSCR: 5.57
• 1% rule: 3.91%
• Cash to close: $7,980

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $28k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $683 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $28k).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $28k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $197 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $855 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#538 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• West Branch Local (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #167 of 656 in OH (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 35.0% vs local median 2.7% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.