Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40299
$1D
3 bd · 3.0 ba ·
3,810 sqft ·
Built 2000
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 17 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,903/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$0
Tax + insurance
−$0
HOA
−$47
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$400
Net cashflow
$1,456/mo
Annual
$17,476/yr
Cap rate
1747613.56%
Cash-on-cash
6241454.53%
DSCR
277710.61
1% rule
190297.00%
Cash to close
$0
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $1).
It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $0 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $0 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 228 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $0 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 1747613.6% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-75XPAKD0P0AYFJ
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29