2004 Hayes Ave

Charleston, IL 61920

$139,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,552 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,027/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax + insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $-55/mo
• Annual: $-656/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.68%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $38,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-656/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (26.1% below list).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#293 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, schools F.
• Charleston CUSD 1 (town): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #489 of 620 in IL (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 34 units permitted in Coles County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coles County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $96k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.0% in Charleston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.